Metals · 5 November 2026
Gold Tests $4,120 After Midterm Rally as Jobs Report Looms
XAU/USD reclaimed $4,000 on Democratic election victories and sliding oil prices before Friday's nonfarm payrolls and next week's CPI.
Ultimo Research
Gold rose to $4,128 on November 5, up 1.68% from the previous day, extending the sharp rebound from the one-year low of $3,870 reached overnight earlier this week. The metal climbed toward $4,150 on Thursday, extending the previous session's gains to reach two-week highs as Democratic victories in the US midterm elections strengthened hopes for an end to the US-Iran conflict, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices while the precious metal also found support from a weaker US dollar and declining Treasury yields. Brent crude plunged 7.6% below $105 on news of US-Iran talks, which eased inflation concerns and pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.90%.
Traders currently see a 79% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. At its October 28, 2026 meeting, the US Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged at 3.75–4.00% per annum, with two Fed officials supporting a 25-basis-point rate hike. The central bank's hawkish posture has kept pressure on non-yielding assets, yet central banks bought a net 321 tonnes in Q3, up 42% year over year and the highest quarterly total since Q4 2024, while year-to-date purchases reached 675 tonnes, 6% above the comparable period of 2025.
What the calendar says
2026-11-06 at 12:30 UTC — US nonfarm payrolls for October (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's key US employment report, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Economists expect the report to show that the economy added 67k jobs last month, following the 29 thousand added in September. A strong print would reinforce December rate-hike expectations and lift real yields; a miss could ease dollar strength and support gold.
2026-11-10 at 12:30 UTC — US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October (Bureau of Labor Statistics). The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose by 0.5% month-on-month in September, while annual inflation accelerated from 3.4% to 3.6%. Sticky inflation readings have given the Fed room to hold rates higher for longer, capping the /markets/gold appeal relative to yielding instruments. Next week's CPI print will test whether recent oil-price declines translate into measured disinflation or whether core pressures remain elevated. Traders can track these and other scheduled events on our /tools/economic-calendar.
Technical picture:
The chart displays Gold plunged from above $4,190 in mid-October to $3,870 overnight on November 2, carving out a one-year low. The subsequent 7% snapback lifted the pair to $4,143 on the close visible in the chart, recovering above the psychological $4,000 mark.
Immediate resistance sits at the recent intraday peaks near $4,150, which aligns with the session high visible in the chart. Above that, the $4,200 zone marks the breakdown level from late October; a sustained reclaim would reopen the path toward $4,250. On the downside, the $3,930 to $3,950 band represents the prior consolidation base; a break would expose last week's $3,870 trough. Momentum is constructive into Friday's data, but directional conviction will hinge on whether payrolls confirm the deceleration trend or surprise higher, reviving rate-hike pricing and the dollar bid.
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