Gold Tests Multi-Week Lows as Central Banks Loom

XAU/USD has dropped more than 380 dollars from the late-August peak near 4668, reaching 4284 by the Friday close, the lowest print since early September. The move lower comes as the 100-day simple moving average sits at 4335 and September's 2 low at 4282, levels now forming immediate support. Market estimates put the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September at roughly 58.4%, a figure that has climbed steadily following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's keynote speech at the central bank's Jackson Hole symposium. Higher rates weigh on non-yielding assets; gold does not generate interest income.

The current federal funds target range stands at 3.5% to 3.75%, held at the July meeting. Technical signals on hourly charts show sellers holding below resistance, with each rally attempt fading. The 4300 to 4335 zone now caps near-term rebounds, while a break of 4282 would expose the 4269 area where the 50-day average waits.

What the calendar says

The next 48 hours bring three central bank decisions that drive every major pair and safe-haven flow. The FOMC meeting runs September 15–16, 2026, with the rate decision announced Wednesday, September 16 at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET), alongside the Summary of Economic Projections. That decision moves EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.

The Bank of England announces on Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 11:00 UTC (12:00 UK time), bearing directly on GBP/USD. Bank Rate currently sits at 3.75%, but the July vote was 6–3, with Greene, Mann and Pill dissenting for a hike. Two more votes would flip the decision.

All 52 BOJ watchers surveyed by Bloomberg forecast borrowing costs will be raised at the end of the two-day meeting on September 18, with the announcement typically around midday Tokyo time, covering USD/JPY. Swap contracts show a roughly 97% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing costs from 1.0% at that meeting. The full schedule sits on our economic calendar.

Gold – hourly structure favours sellers

The hourly chart shows XAU/USD in a defined downtrend from late August. Price peaked near 4668 on August 25, then built a series of lower highs through the first week of September before accelerating lower this past week. The 4530 to 4507 area offered temporary support in late August but gave way in early September. Immediate support now sits at 4335 (the 100-day SMA) and 4282 (September's 2 low), both clearly visible on the chart. Resistance clusters between 4391 and 4438, levels that capped rallies repeatedly in the past week.

Our in-house signal engine reads Sell on the metal, aligned with the chart structure. A reclaim of 4438 would be the first sign of stabilisation; until then, the path of least resistance remains lower. Volatility around the three central bank announcements will likely define the next directional leg, and any of those outcomes could reverse the trend as quickly as they extend it.