Gold Trades $4,087 After Sharp Decline—FOMC Decision Due Wednesday

Gold traded at $4,087 as of the latest session close, marking a sharp pullback from recent highs and extending a pattern of lower peaks through October. The move came as rising oil prices rekindled inflation concerns, reinforcing the case for elevated interest rates and lifting Treasury yields. Benchmark 10-year yields hovered near 5.1%, keeping downside pressure on non-yielding assets. The US dollar index remained broadly firm around 101.7, further weighing on gold's appeal. The session itself was marked by wide intraday swings—price spiked to $4,142 before reversing sharply to touch $4,105, then recovering into the close.

The volatility reflected a market caught between geopolitical risk and rate expectations. Tensions in the Middle East have supported safe-haven demand, yet persistent inflation data and elevated crude prices continue to push back expectations for any near-term policy easing. That tug-of-war has left gold rangebound for most of October, oscillating within a $4,070 to $4,220 corridor.

What the calendar says

The key event this week is the FOMC decision on 28 October at 18:00 UTC, six days from now. Markets currently assign an 83% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in the 3.75%–4.00% range, with roughly 75% odds of a hike later this year. The statement and press conference will be closely watched for any shift in the committee's inflation outlook or guidance on the terminal rate. A hawkish tone would likely support yields and the dollar, pressuring gold further; a dovish signal could reverse some of the recent declines. The blackout period for Fed officials began on 24 October, meaning no additional guidance will be available before the decision.

Technical picture

The hourly chart shows gold rejected firmly at the $4,141 to $4,155 resistance zone, a level that has capped rallies on four separate occasions since mid-October. Price now sits just below the 20-period moving average at roughly $4,127, consistent with a bearish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index reads 51.5, neutral and offering no directional signal, while the MACD remains above its signal line in mildly bullish territory. The Stochastic oscillator has climbed into overbought territory at 87.7, suggesting the recent bounce may struggle to extend without a catalyst.

Immediate support lies at $4,106, where price found bids twice this week. A sustained break below that level would open $4,080 and then $4,070, the lower boundary of the October range. On the topside, reclaiming $4,145 on an hourly close would be the first step toward easing the downside pressure, with $4,172—the 20-day exponential moving average—the more meaningful resistance. A daily close above that level would signal a potential shift in momentum.

The structure remains one of lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe, with price well below the 50-day average at $4,316. Until the $4,145–$4,155 zone is convincingly breached, rallies are likely to attract sellers. The economic calendar will be the primary driver in the sessions ahead.