Metals · 24 September 2026
Gold Under Pressure as Dollar Rallies on Hawkish Fed Bets
XAU/USD traded near $4,285 as the Fed's September hike and hawkish signals drove dollar strength, with US payrolls data looming next week.
Ultimo Research
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% on September 16, its first increase since 2023, and hawkish signals from Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin and Boston Fed's Susan Collins have kept gold under pressure, with Collins supporting the hike amid concerns that inflation could remain above 2%. The dollar index held above 101 at its highest level in almost two months, with markets now pricing in around a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike in October. Gold fell to $4,314.38 per ounce on September 23, down 1.14% from the previous day, and the chart shows the pair trading around $4,285 in the H1 timeframe after declining from early September highs near $4,450.
The last week of September has proved to be the dollar's strongest over the past decade, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a fourth day, climbing as much as 0.4% to its highest level since July 31. S&P Global data showed US private-sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than five years in September, with both the services and manufacturing sectors improving while facing stronger inflationary pressures, and several Federal Reserve officials have reaffirmed support for last week's rate increase. The technical picture on gold remains weak, with the in-house signal engine reading Strong Sell.
What the calendar says
The week ahead brings the US nonfarm payrolls report on October 2 at 12:30 UTC, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This data point moves EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and gold as labour-market strength feeds directly into Federal Reserve policy expectations. Futures markets are pricing an increase to about 4.2% by December and roughly 4.7% by September 2027, extending expectations for tighter policy following the Federal Reserve's recent rate increase. A strong payrolls print would cement hawkish bets and weigh further on non-yielding bullion. The full schedule sits on our economic calendar.
XAU/USD: technical levels
Price peaked near $4,507 in the opening session before selling off through mid-September. The pair found a floor around $4,262 on September 16, rallied briefly to $4,400 on September 18, then rolled over again. Current price sits near $4,285, hovering above the recent low but below the moving average that has capped rallies since mid-month.
Resistance clusters around $4,350–$4,370, the zone that has capped bounces this week. A close above $4,400 would shift the near-term structure, but on September 24, XAU/USD is expected to consolidate within the $4,313.67–$4,376.04 range. Support lies at $4,262, the September 16 low; a break there opens $4,200 and deeper levels toward $4,100. The hourly candles show lower highs and range compression, consistent with a market digesting the Fed's pivot and awaiting fresh catalysts.
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to trade. Trading on margin carries a high level of risk. Please read our full Risk Disclosure Statement.