How to Trade FOMC Day Without Getting Stopped Out

On 16 September the Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision, and the live question is not whether it cuts but whether it hikes. Market pricing as of 2 September 2026 puts the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at roughly two-thirds, after Chair Warsh used Jackson Hole to say the Fed has "work to do" on inflation that has "not meaningfully improved". Whatever the outcome, this is the most important scheduled event of the month for every instrument we list.

FOMC day has a structure, and the traders who lose on it are usually the ones who treat it as a single event. It is three events, spaced over an hour and a half, and each moves the market differently.

What time is the Fed decision?

The statement is released at 14:00 New York time (19:00 London during summer time, 18:00 UTC). The Chair's press conference begins at 14:30 New York. Our economic calendar shows both in your own timezone. Four times a year — March, June, September and December — the statement is accompanied by the Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the "dot plot". September is one of those meetings, which makes it a bigger event than a statement-only month.

The three events

1. The decision and statement (14:00). The rate move itself is usually priced; the statement's wording is where the surprise lives. The market reads the changes against the previous statement word by word within seconds. A hike that was expected produces a smaller move than a change in a single sentence about future policy.

2. The dot plot (14:00, same moment). Each committee member's projection of where rates will be at year-end and beyond. The market's question is not "did they hike?" but "how many more do they see?" A hike accompanied by dots showing one more is a different world from a hike with dots showing three.

3. The press conference (14:30). This is where the initial move most often reverses. The Chair can soften or harden the statement in a single answer, and reporters ask precisely the questions the market wants answered. A common pattern: a hawkish statement moves the dollar up at 14:00, a reassuring press conference moves it back down by 15:00.

Why does the market reverse during the press conference?

Partly because the Chair is adding information the statement did not contain. Partly because positioning is one-sided after the first move and any nuance is enough to squeeze it. And partly because the 14:00 move is executed by algorithms reading the text, while the 14:30 move is executed by people interpreting tone. The two do not always agree.

The practical lesson is that a position opened at 14:01 on the statement is exposed to a second, independent event thirty minutes later. Many desks simply do not hold through the press conference at all.

What moves, and how much

EUR/USD and USD/JPY move on the dollar; gold on real yields and the dollar together; the NAS100 on the 10-year yield; BTC/USD increasingly with the Nasdaq. A 1% move in the indices and a 1–2% range in gold on an FOMC afternoon are normal. Those ranges, put into the position size calculator with a stop that survives the reversal, produce a lot size that is usually smaller than people's instinct.

Spreads widen at 14:00 in every instrument, as they do on payrolls. Our contract specifications publish the minimum stop distance for each symbol; on FOMC day, a stop at the minimum distance is a stop that will be hit by noise.

A plan that survives both moves

Decide the scenarios in advance. Hike-and-hawkish, hike-and-done, no hike. Write down what each does to the dollar, gold and the indices in your view, so you are trading a plan rather than reacting to a screen.
Trade the second move, not the first. Let the statement move happen. If it extends through the press conference, the direction has confirmation; if it reverses, you have avoided the trap.
Halve your size and widen your stop. The combination that keeps you in a trade that is right and out of a trade that is wrong. The margin calculator shows what the smaller size frees up.
Be flat, or be small, into 14:30. The press conference is a separate event. Treat it as one.
Check financing if you hold overnight. Swap rates on dollar pairs and gold reflect the rates that are about to change; the swap guide explains the direction.

The Fed's decision will be known at 14:00 on the 16th. What you can decide now is how big a position you can afford to be wrong with, and where the stop goes that a reversal will not reach. That is the trade.

Sources

This note is market commentary prepared by Ultimo Securities for general information. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument, and does not take your circumstances into account. Trading CFDs on margin carries a high degree of risk and is not suitable for all investors. Figures are as stated by the sources listed on the date given and may have moved since.