Oil Holds Near $100 Ahead of Fed Decision as Hormuz Talks Begin

Crude oil rose to $102.52 on September 14, 2026, up 2.47% from the previous day, and the hourly chart displays a rally that began in late August from the $80 area. WTI paused near $100 after Iranian state media said Tehran would meet Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, with Gulf Cooperation Council diplomats expected to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday to discuss a possible temporary arrangement for managing shipping through the strait. Over the past month, crude oil's price has risen 21.32%, driven by supply concerns as global oil production fell by 1.6 mb/d to 100.1 mb/d in August, as more than 10 mb/d of Gulf output remained shut in amid heightened security risks.

Demand forecasts darkened sharply. The International Energy Agency sharply lowered its outlook for global oil demand, forecasting a 2.5 million-barrel-a-day contraction in 2026, the largest annual decline since the Covid-19 pandemic, as higher prices and tighter supplies weigh on consumption. The IEA warned demand could weaken further if the conflict persists, while OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth forecast for a fifth consecutive time. Since the start of the war, global observed oil inventories have fallen by 507 mb, equal to an average draw of 2.8 mb/d, with August alone seeing stocks fall by a steep 95 mb, or 3.1 mb/d.

What the calendar says

The economic calendar carries three major risk events between now and Friday, each with implications for energy demand and the dollar. On 2026-09-16 at 18:00 UTC, the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and projections; decisions from the Federal Reserve affect the strength of the dollar, which changes how expensive oil looks to other countries. The Bank of England delivers its rate verdict on 2026-09-17 at 11:00 UTC, and the Bank of Japan announces policy on 2026-09-18 (time not fixed). All three bear directly on global growth assumptions and currency moves that shape commodity pricing.

Crude oil: hourly technicals

The hourly chart for WTI spot shows an uptrend from $80.31 on August 25 to a peak near $100.69 on September 11. Price consolidated between $87 and $91 for most of late August before breaking higher into September. The $93.50 level acted as resistance on September 9 and then as support on September 10. Current price sits at $99.50, just below the round-number $100.00 mark and the September 11 high of $100.69. The low on September 12 near $95.90 provides near-term support; a break below opens $93.50 and then the $91 zone. Resistance layers at $100.69, then the post-rally high around $101, with scope toward the $104 to $105 zone where Brent traded last week.