Indices · 11 September 2026
Oil Shock and Rate Fears Drive Equity Slide Ahead of CPI
S&P 500 and DAX fall for fourth day as oil passes $100 and ECB hikes; US CPI today followed by Fed decision next week.
Ultimo Research
Equity markets sold off for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday as US oil prices topped $100 a barrel and investors weighed the prospect of higher inflation driven by a prolonged Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 closed down 0.58% at 7,591.70, while the Nasdaq slid 0.65% to 26,081.72. West Texas Intermediate closed at $102.48, up 6.7%, and Brent crude futures gained 5.9% to settle at $107.63—the highest close since May for both benchmarks.
Frankfurt's DAX 40 fell about 0.8% to close at 25,401 on Thursday, a low last seen in late July, as traders weighed the ECB's decision to raise rates by 25 basis points and warnings of persistent upside inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict. Week to date, the S&P 500 is heading for a 1.6% loss, the Dow for a 2.5% decline, and the Nasdaq for a 1.6% slide.
What the calendar says
The trigger for volatility arrives today at 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET) when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes US inflation (CPI) for August. The annual inflation rate slowed for a second consecutive month to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, in line with expectations. A reading in line with consensus would represent a fourth consecutive month of encouraging inflation readings and ease pressure for a hike by the Fed in September, while inflation hotter than consensus would push expectations toward a hike at next week's meeting. The CPI release will move EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.
Five days later, on 2026-09-16 at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET), the FOMC announces its decision and projections. CME FedWatch data shows a 58.4% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike during the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The confirmed starting point is the current target range of 3.5% – 3.75%, which the FOMC voted 9–3 to hold at its July 28–29, 2026 meeting. This decision will move the same instruments: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.
The Bank of England rate decision follows on 2026-09-17 at 11:00 UTC, directly affecting GBP/USD. Next week, the Bank of Japan policy decision (time not fixed, 2026-09-18) will move USD/JPY.
S&P 500: hourly downtrend off mid-August peak
The chart shows the S&P 500 spot index on an hourly timeframe from August 20 through September 10, 2026. Price carved a clear peak near 7,775 on September 3, then rolled into a sustained decline. The index now trades at 7,638.97 at the right edge of the chart, down from the high and sitting just above the horizontal reference line marked at approximately 7,638.
Support appears near 7,590–7,600, tested twice in the first week of September. A sustained break below would target the late-August lows around 7,620. Resistance lies at the 7,700–7,730 zone, which capped the rally on September 6–7. The slope is down, and the series of lower highs shows sellers in control; reclaiming 7,700 would be the first sign of stabilisation. Our in-house technical signal engine currently reads Strong Sell for EUR/USD, Sell for GBP/USD and USD/JPY, Neutral for XAU/USD and ETH/USD, and Sell for BTC/USD.
DAX 40: sharp reversal from late-August high
The chart displays the DAX 40 index on an hourly basis from August 19 through September 10, 2026. The index rallied strongly into late August, printing a sharp spike high near 26,615 on August 28, then reversed hard. Price now sits at 25,487.55, well below the horizontal line at 25,441.
The August peak marked a clear rejection, and the subsequent slide has been orderly but persistent, punctuated by a violent intraday drop on September 9 that tested 25,300. Support now sits at 25,360–25,400, the late-July zone referenced in recent headlines. A close below 25,300 would open the door to deeper retracement toward 25,000. Resistance appears near 25,700–25,800, the breakdown level from early September; reclaiming that zone would signal the start of a recovery. The hourly momentum indicators would show oversold conditions after the four-day decline, but no confirmed turn has yet appeared on the chart.
Both indices show the same pattern: a late-August peak followed by a grinding retreat as oil surges, bond yields climb and investors price the possibility of further central bank tightening. The next 24 hours will clarify whether inflation data supports or extinguishes those rate-hike odds.
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