Energy · 18 September 2026
Oil Slips Below $96 as BoJ Hikes Rates to 31-Year High
Crude pulled back after Saudi pipeline news while Bank of Japan lifted rates to 1.25%, the highest since 1995.
Ultimo Research
Brent fell to $103.61 on September 17, and the WTI spot contract visible in the chart closed Wednesday at $95.30, down from a peak near $101.85 just five days earlier. The retreat followed a sharp drop in the previous session after Saudi Arabia indicated it could restore around half of the damaged East-West pipeline's capacity within days, with Riyadh also offering additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman. US crude inventories declined by 640,000 barrels to 423.4 million barrels, smaller than expected but still a draw.
The technical picture on the hourly chart shows Crude Oil rolling over from resistance near $102 on September 16. Price has traced a lower high at $100.72 and now sits below the $96 handle, with the $95 zone serving as immediate support. The rally from $82.67 on August 27 extended over 19 dollars in three weeks before stalling. Since the start of the war, global observed oil inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels, equal to an average draw of 2.8 million barrels per day, keeping the fundamental backdrop tight even as short-term supply concerns ease.
OPEC+ decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day in September 2026, completing the rollback of voluntary cuts first announced in 2023. A separate and significantly larger curtailment of approximately 2 million barrels per day remains in place through the end of 2026.
What the calendar says
The Bank of Japan policy decision was announced today, September 18, 2026 (time not fixed). The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995. The BOJ said the move was because of a risk that inflation will deviate upward to beyond its 2% target. The decision bears directly on USD/JPY, which typically strengthens when the BoJ tightens policy, narrowing the rate differential with the Federal Reserve. No further scheduled releases appear on the economic calendar for the remainder of this week.
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