Oil Surges Past $98 as Markets Brace for Fed and ECB Decisions

Crude oil posted its sharpest rally in months, breaking through $98.00 on Friday and trading near $98.49 at the time of the screenshot. The surge—more than 8% from last week's lows near $91.00—was driven by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where talkmarkets.com reports Iran has stepped up attacks on shipping. Houthi missile strikes on Saudi Arabia and disruptions to Russian refinery operations compounded supply fears. Brent settled at $109.69 on Friday, up 4.7% on the week, according to the same source, while WTI crude tracked the move higher.

The oil spike reignited inflation concerns just as US data forced markets to reassess Federal Reserve policy. Consumer prices rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, core CPI reached 2.6%, and producer prices accelerated sharply. Retail sales beat forecasts. After the CPI release, futures priced about a 52% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, up from roughly 22% beforehand, talkmarkets.com notes. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.10%, and the Nasdaq lost about 4% on the week, its worst performance since June.

What the calendar says

The Federal Reserve's rate decision is scheduled for 28 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC, and it is the central event for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Markets will parse the statement and Chair Powell's press conference for any signal that the tightening cycle is nearing its end—or that inflation fears tied to the oil shock have prompted another quarter-point hike.

One day later, on 29 October 2026 at 12:15 UTC, the European Central Bank announces its own rate decision, which will move EUR/USD and set the tone for European assets. The ECB has been under pressure to keep policy tight as energy prices climb, but weaker flash PMIs and subdued growth make the decision far from straightforward. Friday's flash PMI releases for the US, eurozone and UK will offer the last data points before both central banks convene.

A full schedule of releases is available on our economic calendar.

Crude oil

The chart shows spot crude rallying from $87.00 support in early October to a high near $99.21 on 19 October. The breakout above the $97.81 resistance level marked by the red line signals a bullish continuation. Momentum remains strong, and the structure suggests further upside toward $100.00 and potentially $104.00 if geopolitical tensions persist. Immediate support now sits at $97.00, with a stronger floor at $95.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.1239, up 0.3%, after printing a fresh 52-week low of 1.1113 on Wednesday, according to talkmarkets.com. The pair rebounded by more than 1% to 1.1269 on Friday as the dollar index slipped to about 101.6. Roboforex.com flags resistance at 1.1223 and 1.1379, with support at 1.1112 and 1.1037. Price is trading right on its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages around 1.120–1.122, a sign of indecision ahead of the Fed and ECB decisions. Our hourly signal engine currently reads Sell, and ultimosecurities.com notes the pair changed sides 10 times last week—an indecisive week where trend-following signals are least reliable.

Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum

Gold settled at $4,186.70, down 0.7% on the week, after dropping 1.7% on Wednesday to a low of $4,095 following the CPI release, talkmarkets.com reports. Treasury yields near multi-decade highs and rising Fed hike odds continue to cap the metal. Roboforex.com identifies support at $4,069 and $4,044, with resistance at $4,222 and $4,372.

Bitcoin closed Friday at $82,650, flat on the week, but choppy, ranging between $79,842 and $84,324. It slipped to about $81,500 on Saturday morning, just below its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages. Ethereum lost about 2.4% to $2,429 and again lagged Bitcoin, holding near $2,420 on Saturday. The daily indicator reads Strong Sell and price sits below its moving averages. Both crypto assets remain vulnerable to risk-off flows while the 10-year yield holds above 5%.