Indices · 16 September 2026
S&P and DAX Drift Lower Into Three Central-Bank Decisions
Both indices retreat ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, Thursday's BoE, and Friday's BoJ, with equities under pressure from rate-hike expectations.
Ultimo Research
The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,619.98, while the DAX 40 last traded near 26,008 points on Tuesday 9 September 2026. Both benchmarks have slipped from earlier peaks as Treasury yields climbed above 5% for the first time since 2023 and traders now almost fully price in a quarter-point Fed rate hike on Wednesday, up from about 60% odds a week ago. Unchanged 3.4% CPI has solidified expectations for four consecutive Fed rate hikes, a sharp reversal from the easing bias that supported equities through much of 2025.
The S&P 500 has dropped nearly 1% so far in September, historically its weakest month, amid concerns over elevated energy costs. The DAX faces similar headwinds: the ECB raised its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at the 10 September decision, moving European policy away from the easing cycle that had underpinned the index's rally to an all-time high of 26,620 points in late August.
What the calendar says
The Federal Reserve announces its decision on 16 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC (FOMC calendar). Current rates sit at 3.50%–3.75%, and the meeting includes the Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. The decision will move EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD, and ETH/USD.
The Bank of England decides on 17 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC (12:00 London time). The current UK interest rate is 3.75%, and the last vote was 6–3, with three members wanting a hike to 4.00%. The decision directly affects GBP/USD.
The Bank of Japan holds its policy meeting on 18 September 2026 (time not fixed). This decision will move USD/JPY.
S&P 500: Hourly chart shows support at 7,600
The index peaked near 7,775 in early September before a sustained drift lower. Current price sits at 7,611.58, just above the horizontal support visible near 7,600. The pattern shows a series of lower highs since the 4 September spike to 7,764, with the most recent leg down accelerating into Monday's close. A break below 7,600 would expose the 10 September low near 7,590.
DAX 40: Hourly chart confirms downtrend from August high
The index reached an intraday high near 26,660 on 28 August, then reversed sharply into early September. The DAX stood at 26,048.38 as of 4 September, and the chart shows it has since slipped further to 25,182.65. A clear downtrend has formed, with resistance now visible near 25,700. Support appears around 25,000; a decisive break would be the first close below that round figure since mid-August and would confirm the reversal from the all-time high.
Both charts reflect the same underlying pressure: potential Federal Reserve rate hikes could spur a correction as reduced corporate margins hurt profit outlooks and markets brace for a tightening cycle. The next 48 hours will determine whether the data and the committee rhetoric warrant the hawkish repricing already embedded in rates markets.
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