Indices · 19 October 2026
S&P and DAX retreat as Fed meeting looms; oil shock weighs on risk
Equity indices slid from recent highs while oil held above $109, with markets awaiting the Fed and ECB decisions next week.
Ultimo Research
Equity markets ended the week under pressure as the S&P 500 settled near 7,705 and the DAX 40 around 25,374, both pulling back from earlier highs. The S&P lost roughly 4% over the week—its worst performance since June—while the DAX remains in a broad consolidation after hitting 25,708 on October 15. The retreat reflects rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year note holding near 5.10%, and a fresh oil shock that pushed Brent crude to $109.69 by Friday's close, up 4.7% on the week. Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have revived inflation fears just as US data turned hot: September CPI printed 3.7% year-on-year (from 3.4% in August), core CPI reached 2.6%, and producer prices accelerated sharply. Futures now price about a 52% chance of a Fed rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting, up from roughly 22% a week earlier, according to talkmarkets.com.
The VIX jumped to around 20, signalling renewed anxiety, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq bore the brunt of the sell-off. Both charts show price trading below key support: the S&P is hovering around the 7,705 level marked on the first chart, while the DAX sits near 25,374, roughly in line with the horizontal support visible in the second image. Neither index has yet confirmed a deeper break, but the risk-off mood and rising yields are keeping buyers cautious.
What the calendar says
The week ahead is dominated by two central bank decisions. On 2026-10-28 at 18:00 UTC, the Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision, with markets now assigning even odds to a 25 bp hike following the September inflation surprise. The decision will move EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD. One day later, on 2026-10-29 at 12:15 UTC, the European Central Bank will deliver its own rate decision, with implications for EUR/USD. The ECB is widely expected to hold, but any guidance on future cuts—or the lack thereof—will shape euro direction into November. Friday also brings October flash PMIs for the US, eurozone and UK, plus US PCE inflation data on October 29, though these fall just outside the immediate trading week. The full schedule is on our economic calendar.
S&P 500 and DAX 40
The S&P 500 chart shows price trading near 7,705, with a clear horizontal support zone running through that level. A sustained break below would open the way toward 7,665 and then 7,563, per the support levels cited by roboforex.com. Resistance sits at 7,776 and 7,898. The DAX 40, trading around 25,374, is consolidating after peaking at 25,708. The chart reveals a long sideways range with support near the current price; a loss of this floor would put 25,145 in focus. Both indices remain vulnerable while yields stay elevated and geopolitical risk keeps oil above $109.
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to trade. Trading on margin carries a high level of risk. Please read our full Risk Disclosure Statement.