Three Central Banks, Three Days: EUR/USD Eyes 1.15 Test

EUR/USD has spent the past ten trading days carving a tight range between 1.1550 and 1.1650, but the week ahead strips away any reason to stay neutral. The current federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, with markets pricing a hike after Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, while the pair itself has shed 500 pips from the September high near 1.1650 and now tests the chart support at the 1.1550 horizontal. The hourly chart shows consolidation rather than conviction, but the event risk lined up over the next 48 hours has the power to rewrite the technical picture in either direction.

The ECB delivered a hawkish rate hike recently, yet the move failed to generate a breakout, and the pair has drifted lower as dollar strength returned. Rising oil prices tied to escalating US-Iran tensions add another headwind for the euro, which remains sensitive to energy shocks. The chart shows repeated failure to hold above 1.1600 since September 10, and the 200-day moving average now looms as a key reference point in the days ahead.

What the calendar says

The FOMC announces its September decision today, September 16 at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET), and the meeting carries added weight because it includes the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot. The current range is 3.50–3.75%; a 25-basis-point hike would move it to 3.75–4.00%. The decision lands first and sets the dollar tone for everything that follows, affecting EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.

The Bank of England announces on September 17 at 11:00 UTC (12:00 UK time). The BoE held its base rate at 3.75% on July 30 in a divided 6–3 vote, with three policymakers wanting a rise to 4.00%. The BoE is predicted to hold interest rates again, though inflation has climbed back to 2.9% and markets have moved from pricing cuts to pricing the first rise. The decision carries direct implications for GBP/USD but also shapes the broader dollar picture.

The Bank of Japan makes its policy decision on September 18, with a rate hike increasingly being priced in by markets. All 52 BoJ watchers surveyed forecast borrowing costs will be raised at the end of the two-day meeting, and the expectation is for a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25%. Swap contracts show roughly 97% probability of a move. The BoJ decision matters most for USD/JPY but feeds into risk sentiment across crypto and equities. The full economic calendar carries additional detail on all three events and their scheduled times.

EUR/USD: support at 1.1550, resistance at 1.1600

The hourly chart shows EUR/USD trading at 1.1553, just above the horizontal support zone that has held since mid-September. The pair peaked near 1.1650 on September 9 and has trended lower since, with selling pressure intensifying over the past five sessions. The 1.1600 level now acts as near-term resistance; the pair has made three separate attempts to reclaim it since September 11 and failed each time.

Below current price, 1.1550 marks the first line of defence, reinforced by several intraday wicks over the past week. A break below brings 1.1520 and then the psychological 1.1500 round figure into view. On the upside, a clean close above 1.1600 would reopen 1.1650 and shift attention back toward the year-to-date range top. The hourly structure shows neither bullish nor bearish commitment at present, and volatility should pick up sharply once the Fed crosses the wires at 18:00 UTC today.