US and European Indices Consolidate After Fed Delivers First Hike

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% on September 16, its first increase since 2023, catching few by surprise but sending 10-year yields to 5% on bets that oil prices near $100 could fuel further inflation. The ECB followed suit at its September 10 meeting, lifting the deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking its second hike since the US-Iran conflict began. The DAX closed Friday at 25,296 (down 1.6%), its lowest since late July, while the S&P 500 gained 0.11% on September 18 as chipmakers offset broader weakness. Bitcoin topped $81,000 against a backdrop of quadruple witching and rising Treasury yields.

The S&P 500 fell to 7,656.98 in the week ending September 11, 1.8% below its August 13 record high. The chart shows the S&P 500 on an hourly timeframe ranging from late August through mid-September, with price oscillating between roughly 7,580 and 7,780. A horizontal line near 7,700 marks near-term resistance; traders had been pricing in a roughly 92% likelihood of the September hike by mid-month, and the index has since recovered modestly from its 16 September lows. The week's catalyst was a Consumer Price Index reading of 3.4%, unchanged from a month earlier, keeping inflation well above the Fed's target and prompting updated projections that point to the possibility of another rate increase this year.

The DAX chart, spans the same period and reveals sharper volatility. From a peak near 26,600 in late August, the index sold off through early September, found support around 25,500—marked by a red horizontal on the chart—then chopped sideways for a week before rolling over again on 18 September. The ECB said the Middle East conflict continues to fuel inflationary pressures, with inflation expected to remain well above its 2% target for an extended period. Baseline Eurosystem staff projections see headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, a trajectory that leaves little room for dovish surprises.

What the calendar says

The ECB's next monetary policy meeting runs 28–29 October 2026 in Frankfurt, followed by a press conference on the second day. Interest-rate futures are pricing in a third hike by December, so any dovish tilt in the October statement would be meaningful. A second ECB decision is scheduled for 16–17 December 2026. On the US side, the FOMC reconvenes in early November (exact date not yet confirmed in search results), and the baseline scenario calls for the Fed to hike one additional time in 2026 as it seeks to reduce inflation at "sufficient speed". Readers can track all scheduled releases on our economic calendar.

S&P 500: resistance holds, support untested

The S&P 500 hourly chart identifies price at 7,701 as of the right edge, sitting just above the 7,700 pivot. Immediate resistance clusters between 7,750 and 7,780, levels that capped rallies in early and mid-September. On the downside, the 16 September low near 7,550 and the mid-August floor around 7,580 form the next support zone. A clean break above 7,780 would target the August high near 7,817, while a failure at current levels opens the door back to 7,550. Volume spikes during the 18 September options expiry confirm that institutional hedging activity remains elevated.

DAX 40: rolling over from month-long resistance

The DAX hourly chart shows an instrument struggling to reclaim the 25,500 level that has acted as both support and resistance since early September. Price ended the Friday session at 25,296, confirming the break. The next logical target sits near 25,000, a psychological threshold that also aligns with the late-July consolidation. Above, sellers are likely to defend 25,500 on any re-test, with the September 4 high at 26,048 marking the upper boundary of the range. Friday's decline was led by Volkswagen (down 5.97%), Porsche Automobil (down 5.19%) and Mercedes-Benz (down 4.76%), underscoring sector-specific pressure on German automakers.