Energy · 8 September 2026
Crude rallies on Hormuz escalation; central banks line up this week
WTI crude tests 92 after Iran strikes fuel three-month highs; ECB, Fed, BoE and BoJ all decide within eight days.
Ultimo Research
Crude oil rose to the $92 per barrel mark on Monday, the highest in three months, and nearly 40% above levels from before the outbreak of the war in Iran, extending last week's sharp gains. Oil prices surged nearly 10% last week as renewed US-Iran fighting raised fears of further disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. Both sides stepped up attacks over the weekend, targeting ships and military vessels around Hormuz. Saudi Aramco's facilities in Jazan near the Red Sea were also attacked again on Monday, although the damage was limited. Despite the heightened risks, oil continues to flow out of the Persian Gulf, with roughly 7 million barrels a day of crude and refined products reportedly passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US SPR plunged to less than 290 million barrels, the lowest since 1982, limiting Washington's ability to dampen prices through strategic releases. OPEC+ has approved a 188,000-bpd production increase for September, completing its planned output restoration, though most of the hikes announced by OPEC+ since March have had a negligible impact on the physical crude market given the extent of Hormuz disruptions.
What the calendar says
The week ahead is dominated by central bank decisions that will set the tone for currency and commodity markets through year-end. On 10 September at 12:15 UTC, the ECB rate decision lands; markets will watch for any signal on the pace of cuts as euro-area growth slows. 11 September at 12:30 UTC brings US inflation (CPI) for August, a key input for the Fed's deliberations later in the week. The main event arrives 16 September at 18:00 UTC when the FOMC decision and projections are released—the dot plot and Chair Powell's press conference will shape dollar expectations into the fourth quarter. On 17 September at 11:00 UTC the BoE rate decision follows, with UK services inflation still sticky. Finally, the BoJ policy decision is scheduled for 18 September (time not yet fixed), with markets alert to any shift in the Bank's tightening stance. All five events have the potential to move EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD, and ETH/USD.
Crude oil (WTI) — hourly chart
The chart shows WTI crude oil spot on an hourly timeframe covering mid-August through 8 September. Price has broken above $91 and is approaching the recent high near $91.20, having rallied sharply from the late-August low around $79.90. The move off the lows has been steady with minimal retracements, suggesting strong momentum. Support now sits at the consolidation zone near $89.00 to $90.00, which has acted as a platform for the latest leg higher. Resistance is immediate at $92.00 and extends to the April highs in the $93 to $94 region. The pattern resembles a bullish channel with higher lows intact since late August. Volatility is elevated given the geopolitical premium; any headline around shipping access or ceasefire talks can produce swift reversals. For traders holding long positions, the $89.00 level is the nearest meaningful support; a break there would suggest profit-taking or demand destruction is underway.
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