Indices · 8 September 2026
Equity Indices Hold Near Support as Rate Hike Bets Rise
DAX and S&P 500 consolidate after recent selloff as oil prices climb and markets price over 50% chance of Fed rate hike this month.
Ultimo Research
A stronger-than-anticipated increase in US jobs drove stocks and short-dated notes lower, with traders boosting their bets the Federal Reserve will raise rates this month, with swap contracts pricing in an over 50% chance of a hike. Nonfarm payrolls grew 162,000 last month, much more than the 53,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones expected, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. A new wave of fighting in Iran has sent oil and gas prices spiraling this week, with European natural gas futures hitting a three-year high and oil futures moving closer to $100 a barrel. Brent crude futures rose $1.03, or 1.1%, to settle at $97.31 a barrel, after hitting their highest point since July 24 at $98.06.
What the calendar says
Three central bank decisions and a key US inflation print will shape price action across risk assets over the next ten days. The European Central Bank rate decision lands at 12:15 UTC on 2026-09-10, two days from now, with policy implications for the euro and European equity indices. US inflation (CPI) follows at 12:30 UTC on 2026-09-11, three days out; this release will influence EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD, and ETH/USD. The FOMC decision and projections come at 18:00 UTC on 2026-09-16, with the Federal Reserve's rate path now the dominant narrative after the jobs surprise. The Bank of England rate decision follows at 11:00 UTC on 2026-09-17, directly impacting GBP/USD, while the Bank of Japan policy decision concludes the cycle on 2026-09-18, with timing not yet fixed, moving USD/JPY.
DAX 40: consolidation above 25,900
The DAX hourly chart shows the German benchmark trading at approximately 26,026, holding above the 25,900 support zone marked by the red horizontal line. The DAX stock price has ranged from 21,863.81 to 26,618.74 over the past 52 weeks. The August peak near 26,618 preceded a sharp correction that reached 25,779 in early September, a drop of roughly 840 points. The index has since recovered and is consolidating around the psychological 26,000 level. Resistance sits at the recent swing high near 26,175, while a break below 25,900 would reopen the September low.
S&P 500: testing 7,700 after payrolls spike
The S&P 500 hourly chart places the US benchmark around 7,720, just above the 7,705–7,710 support marked in red. The 30-stock Dow was down 271.86 points, or 0.51%, closing at 53,414.25, while the S&P 500 slid 0.38% to end at 7,718.60. The index peaked near 7,775 before sellers emerged, driving price down to 7,620 in the first days of September. That low held, and the subsequent bounce has stalled at the current level. Immediate resistance sits at 7,750, with the August high at 7,775 the next target. A close below 7,700 would shift focus back toward the 7,620 September low. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield hit a high of 4.818% on Wednesday — a level not seen since November 2023, while yields in the U.K., Germany and France also rose.
The technical signal engine currently reads Strong Sell for USD/JPY, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD, with Sell for ETH/USD and Neutral for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Rising oil prices and elevated Treasury yields are adding volatility ahead of next week's inflation data. Full trading conditions apply to all instruments.
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