EUR/USD Holds 1.16 as CPI and FOMC Decisions Loom Large

EUR/USD fell to 1.1627 on September 10, retracing from the mid-1.16 range after US inflation slowed to 3.4% in July and US employers added 162,000 jobs in August—three times the consensus. The stronger jobs data shifted market pricing sharply: CME FedWatch now shows a 58.4% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting. The hourly chart shows price grinding between 1.1590 and 1.1630 over the past week, with the horizontal red line marking support near 1.1600.

Policymakers are expected to raise rates while the ongoing US-Iran war has sent Brent crude to $100 a barrel and European gas to three-and-a-half-year highs, complicating the inflation outlook. The eurozone economy has shown surprising resilience to the Middle East war, while headline inflation has continued to climb with oil prices remaining elevated. The pair trades inside a multi-month consolidation pattern, caught between dollar strength driven by Fed hawkishness and euro support from energy-driven inflation expectations.

What the calendar says

Today at 12:30 UTC, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August CPI data—the final inflation print before next week's FOMC decision. Companies making business payments should focus on CPI on September 11, retail sales and the Fed decision on September 16. Our economic calendar carries the full release schedule.

On 2026-09-16 at 18:00 UTC, the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision and projections. The current target range of 3.5%–3.75% was held 9–3 at the July meeting. Market expectations for rates changed following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, and the probability of a rate hike increased sharply. This is a Summary of Economic Projections meeting, meaning the Fed will publish updated dot plots and forecasts that move GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.

On 2026-09-17 at 11:00 UTC, the Bank of England decides on rates—one day after the Fed. That six-day stretch also includes the Bank of Japan policy decision on 2026-09-18, though timing is not yet fixed. All three decisions land within 72 hours of each other, raising the risk that currency volatility spills across sessions.

EUR/USD: support at 1.1600, resistance at 1.1635

The one-hour chart for EUR/USD shows price consolidating just above 1.1600 through early September. The red horizontal line near 1.1600 marks a support zone that has held on several tests since late August. Resistance sits near 1.1635–1.1640, where the pair stalled multiple times in the second week of the month.

A move lower from here would make technical sense, with the next support seen around 1.1565–1.1575 area; break that and 1.1500 could become in focus. Above current levels, if 1.1635 breaks, then 1.1700 could be re-tested fairly quickly, and above that 1.1800 is the next upside objective. The pair has traced out a tight range over the past 72 hours, suggesting traders are positioned defensively ahead of today's CPI release and next week's cascade of central-bank decisions. Our in-house signal engine reads Strong Sell on EUR/USD, though that is context rather than a recommendation—trading conditions and margin requirements are detailed on our trading conditions page.