Metals · 13 November 2026
Gold Tests 13-Month Low as Rate-Hike Odds Hit 90%
XAU/USD fell to $3,850 Thursday as October CPI data and hawkish Fed signals lifted December hike probability to 90%.
Ultimo Research
Gold rose to $3,914.60 on November 13, up 0.98%, bouncing from a fresh 13-month low near $3,850 posted the previous day. The three-session decline that began Tuesday pushed the metal 25% below its January 29 all-time high of $5,598.75. Stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation data for October, released on Tuesday, boosted the dollar to a 19-month high as traders increased bets on further Fed rate hikes.
October's headline CPI rose 0.4% for the month, above the 0.3% forecast, while core CPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that a 50-basis-point hike in December may be necessary, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported at least two additional 25-basis-point increases. Markets are pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, while the probability of a larger 50-basis-point increase has risen to around 10%.
Renewed oil price gains added to inflation concerns after President Donald Trump said the US did not need a deal with Iran. Higher crude prices feed inflation expectations, lifting real yields and the dollar—both headwinds for non-yielding bullion. Central banks bought about 321 tonnes in Q3, and global ETF holdings hit a record 4,256 tonnes, yet the tactical selling wave overwhelmed structural demand as about $7 trillion sits in money market funds, offering a yield alternative.
What the calendar says
November 13 — Producer Price Index (PPI) for October. A hotter reading reinforces the narrative for a December hike; softer data may prompt profit-taking on dollar longs. November 16 — Empire State Manufacturing Index and November 17 — Industrial production data for October offer insight into whether growth momentum can withstand higher rates. November 19 — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and November 20 — University of Michigan inflation expectations close the week. The central bank's next meeting is scheduled for December 9, making this fortnight the final data window before the blackout period.
Full release times and detail are on our economic calendar.
Technical structure
The chart shows XAU/USD in a sharp downtrend from early November peaks near $4,144. Price fell below the $3,900 horizontal support drawn across most of October, breaking to $3,850 on Thursday before today's bounce. The in-house signal reads Sell, consistent with momentum that has accelerated through rising wedge support and multiple moving averages.
The $3,969 demand zone marks where buyers stepped in during early November; the metal sliced through it Wednesday. Immediate support sits at $4,000; a break below $4,000 may open the way for a further drop towards $3,950. On the upside, the 20-period EMA at approximately $4,074 acts as the first dynamic barrier, with $4,150 resistance; a break above $4,150 may open the way for further upside towards $4,250.
The chart's red horizontal line near $3,898 has been tested repeatedly this week. Given the setup, a close back above $4,000 is required before bulls can attempt to reclaim structure. Until then, as long as the price remains below $4,150, the possibility of deeper correction remains high, with a break below $3,870 opening the way for further downside towards $3,800; a weekly close below $3,800 would weaken the outlook and increase the risk of deeper correction towards $3,500–$3,600.
Those considering gold markets under current volatility can review trading conditions for margin and execution details.
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to trade. Trading on margin carries a high level of risk. Please read our full Risk Disclosure Statement.