Indices · 15 September 2026
Indices Brace For Triple Central Bank Week Led By Fed Decision
DAX and S&P 500 hold recent lows ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, with BoE and BoJ decisions to follow through Friday.
Ultimo Research
European and US equity indices spent the past week shedding altitude as higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields put pressure on valuations ahead of a packed central bank calendar. Germany's main stock market index fell to 25,441 points on September 14, 2026, losing 0.50% from the previous session, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.48% to end at 7,619.98. Frankfurt's DAX 40 fell more than 0.5% to around 25,420 points on Monday, pressured by a sharp rise in oil prices, renewed concerns over the rapid development of artificial intelligence, and a cautious tone ahead of a busy week for central banks. Markets price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, a dramatic shift from earlier in the year when cuts were still on the table.
The fundamental backdrop has tightened. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 93% chance the FOMC will raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) this time around, to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. While money markets see a September Fed hike as an almost done deal after the latest consumer price index, equity buyers stepped in to halt a four-day drop in the S&P 500. Energy remains the wildcard. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.80 percent, and oil jumped above $90 on Strait of Hormuz attacks, adding inflationary pressure that central banks cannot ignore.
What the calendar says
The week ahead is dominated by three major central bank decisions, each with the power to reset rate expectations and cross-asset volatility.
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC — The Federal Reserve announces its FOMC decision and releases the Summary of Economic Projections. The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 2:00 PM Eastern Time, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot. It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday–Wednesday, September 15–16, 2026, and nine members agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent at the July meeting. This decision drives expectations for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.
Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC — The Bank of England publishes its rate decision. The next Bank of England decision is on Thursday 17 September 2026, announced at 12:00 UK time. The Bank of England held its base rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026 in a divided 6–3 vote — three policymakers wanted a rise to 4.00%. The current UK interest rate is 3.75%. Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann voted to increase it to 4%, reflecting growing concern that higher energy prices could lead to more persistent inflation. The decision will move GBP/USD and UK-exposed assets.
Friday, 18 September 2026 (time not fixed) — The Bank of Japan concludes its policy meeting and announces its decision. This moves USD/JPY and yen crosses.
All three decisions fall within a 72-hour window, with potential for compounding volatility if any central bank surprises. Consult the full schedule on our economic calendar.
DAX 40: hourly chart shows support at 25,370
The chart depicts the DAX 40 on an hourly timeframe from 21 August through 13 September. The index peaked at 26,613 on 28 August before beginning a steady descent that accelerated into early September. Price found initial support near 25,370 on 10 September, then staged a modest recovery before settling back toward 25,441 on the close of 14 September.
The index is trading 1,172 points below its late-August high. A cluster of resistance now sits between 25,660 and 25,880, the consolidation zone from early September. Below current levels, the 25,370 low marks the first line of defense; a break would expose the psychological 25,000 round number. The hourly structure remains corrective, with lower highs suggesting sellers retain control into the Fed meeting.
S&P 500: testing the 7,604 support zone
The chart shows the S&P 500 hourly from 24 August through 14 September. The index climbed to a high near 7,775 in the first days of September before reversing sharply. Price fell through several minor support levels and now tests a horizontal zone marked on the chart near 7,604, which has been touched multiple times over the past two sessions.
The index closed Monday at 7,620, just above that support. A firm hold above 7,604 keeps the door open for a retest of the 7,700–7,730 resistance band. A breakdown would target the early September low near 7,570, with the 7,500 handle the next area of interest. Momentum indicators on the hourly timeframe have yet to turn constructive, and volume has been subdued ahead of Wednesday's announcement.
Cross-asset conditions argue for caution. Treasury yields near 4.80% and oil above $90 per barrel tighten the discount rate applied to equity earnings. The indices trade near their cycle highs with little room for hawkish surprises. For current spreads and conditions, see trading conditions.
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