Energy · 9 September 2026
Oil Nears $100 as Middle East Strikes Lift Supply Fears
Brent and WTI rally on fresh attacks against Saudi energy facilities while markets await ECB and Fed rate decisions this week.
Ultimo Research
Brent crude oil has surged to the highest level since late July, reaching $98 per barrel following attacks on Saudi energy facilities, while U.S. WTI futures advanced to $92.90 per barrel. Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed responsibility for targeting the 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery and other facilities, escalating supply concerns that have already driven prices up sharply. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast by $5 to $85 per barrel for December 2026, warning that prices could exceed $120 in 2027 if crude output in the Gulf remains 4 million barrels per day below prewar levels.
The charts show both benchmarks in strong uptrends from late August lows. Oil prices surged nearly 10% last week as renewed US-Iran fighting raised fears of further disruptions. An average of roughly 10 commodity vessels per day crossed Hormuz during the latest 10-day period, the lowest rate since May, underscoring the supply bottleneck. Despite these constraints, roughly 7 million barrels per day of crude and refined products reportedly continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
What the calendar says
Tomorrow at 12:15 UTC on 2026-09-10, the European Central Bank meets to decide rates. Market pricing implies a 99.0% probability of interest rates increasing to 2.50%, a 25-basis-point hike that has been well telegraphed by recent comments from Governing Council members. The decision will move EUR/USD and influence the dollar, which in turn affects oil pricing for international buyers.
In two days, 2026-09-11 at 12:30 UTC, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August CPI inflation data. That reading will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve decision due next week.
On 2026-09-16 at 18:00 UTC, the FOMC announces its rate decision and projections. Markets are watching whether persistently elevated energy prices feed through to core inflation and alter the Fed's stance. The decision will directly influence GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, BTC/USD and ETH/USD.
The Bank of England follows on 2026-09-17 at 11:00 UTC, and the Bank of Japan meets 2026-09-18 (time not fixed). All five central-bank decisions land within the next nine days, a concentration that historically amplifies volatility across currencies, commodities and risk assets.
Brent crude oil (hourly chart)
The chart displays Brent spot prices on an hourly timeframe spanning August 17 through September 9. Price traded as low as $84.95 on August 26 before rallying in a sustained move that broke above $90 on September 1 and accelerated through $95 on September 4. The most recent candle shows Brent at $97.26, just shy of the psychological $100 level. The $100 level is the clearest nearby test; a sustained break above it would reinforce the bullish structure, while failure to clear that area could trigger profit-taking. Support now sits near $95, with the 50-day exponential moving average around $89.22 offering a deeper backstop.
WTI crude oil (hourly chart)
The chart tracks WTI on an hourly basis over the same period. The low of $79.94 on August 26 has given way to a rally that pushed WTI above $88 on September 1 and through $91 by September 4. The latest print stands at $92.66. The pattern mirrors Brent: a V-shaped recovery followed by consolidation in the low-$90s, then renewed buying. Immediate resistance lies at $93.50–$94, with the next target at $95. A pullback would find support near $90 and then $88.
Both charts show green candlesticks dominating the right-hand side, signalling persistent buying pressure as concerns over further disruption to global oil supplies amid ongoing Houthi strikes and rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support prices. OPEC+ members decided to maintain September 2026 required production for October 2026, leaving supply tight even as the group completed its planned rollback of voluntary cuts.
Traders should monitor tomorrow's ECB decision and Thursday's U.S. inflation print for clues on the dollar's path and the Fed's next move—both of which will shape oil demand expectations and currency-driven flows into commodities. For live spreads and conditions, see our trading conditions page.
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